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Type: Conference paper
Title: Expertise and the wisdom of crowds: Whose judgments to trust and when
Author: Welsh, M.
Citation: Building bridges across cognitive sciences around the world: Proceedings of the 34th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Sapporo, Japan, August 1-4, 2012 / N. Miyake, D. Peeble, R. P. Cooper (eds.): pp.1131-1136
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Issue Date: 2012
ISBN: 9780976831884
Cover art
Conference Name: Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (34th : 2012 : Sapporo, Japan)
Department: Faculty of Engineering, Computer & Mathematical Sciences
Organisation: Institute for Mineral and Energy Resources
Statement of
Matthew B. Welsh
Abstract: The Wisdom of Crowds describes the fact that aggregating a group’s estimate regarding unknown values is often a better strategy than selecting even an expert’s opinion. The efficacy of this strategy, however, depends on biases being nonsystematic and everyone being able to make a meaningful assessment. In situations where these conditions do not hold, expertise seems more likely to produce the best outcome. Amateurs and professional judgments are examined in a subjective domain – reviews of shows from an Arts festival – asking which group provides better information to the potential theatre-goer. In conclusion, while following the crowd produces good results, where a smaller number of reviews are available, taking expertise into account improves their usefulness and discrimination between shows.
Keywords: Expertise; Wisdom of Crowds; subjective judgment.
Rights: © The authors
RMID: 0020125444
Appears in Collections:Australian School of Petroleum publications

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