Forecasting seasonal time series using weighted gradient RBF network based autoregressive model

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dc.contributor.authorRuan, W.
dc.contributor.authorSheng, Q.
dc.contributor.authorXu, P.
dc.contributor.authorTran, N.
dc.contributor.authorFalkner, N.
dc.contributor.authorLi, X.
dc.contributor.authorZhang, W.
dc.contributor.conference25th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM) (24 Oct 2016 - 28 Oct 2016 : Indianapolis, IN)
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractHow to accurately forecast seasonal time series is very important for many business area such as marketing decision,planning production and profit estimation. In this paper, we propose a weighted gradient Radial Basis Function Network based AutoRegressive (WGRBF-AR) model for modeling and predicting the nonlinear and non-stationary seasonal time series. This WGRBF-AR model is a synthesis of the weighted gradient RBF network and the functional-coefficient autoregressive (FAR) model through using the WGRBF networks to approximate varying coefficients of FAR model. It not only takes the advantages of the FAR model in nonlinear dynamics description but also inherits the capability of the WGRBF network to deal with non-stationarity. We test our model using ten-years retail sales data on five different commodity in US. The results demonstrate that the proposed WGRBF-AR model can achieve competitive prediction accuracy compared with the state-of-the-art.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityWenjie Ruan, Quan Z. Sheng, Peipei Xu, Nguyen Khoi Tran, Xue Li, Wei Emma Zhang
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the 25th International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, 2016, vol.24-28-October-2016, pp.2021-2024
dc.identifier.doi10.1145/2983323.2983899
dc.identifier.isbn9781450340731
dc.identifier.orcidTran, N. [0000-0002-9538-7476]
dc.identifier.orcidFalkner, N. [0000-0001-7892-6813]
dc.identifier.orcidZhang, W. [0000-0002-0406-5974]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/108661
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherACM
dc.rights© 2016 ACM
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983899
dc.titleForecasting seasonal time series using weighted gradient RBF network based autoregressive model
dc.typeConference paper
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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