The use of scenario thinking and planning in counterterrorism strategy
Date
2009
Authors
Iannella, D.L.
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Conference paper
Citation
Proceedings of the 2009 Australian political studies association annual conference, 2009, pp.1-23
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Australian Political Studies Association Annual Conference 2009 (27 Sep 2009 - 30 Sep 2009 : Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)
Abstract
Creating viable terrorist attack scenarios and using them as the basis for threat analysis allows for a complete and comprehensive investigation into the complexity of threats facing the international community and their critical services and infrastructure. Rather than being predictions of what will occur, scenarios outline possibilities that could occur. These scenarios take into account diverse factors from a range of disciplines to expand on conventional international relations theories which can be reductionist and poorly equipped to deal with complex phenomena. While the exact scenarios created may never eventuate, creating and planning for these attacks is important to highlight existing vulnerabilities. This will minimise the effects of potential real, similar situations as decision makers will be equipped to react and respond in a rational, effectual and timely manner.
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Copyright 2009 APSA