Machine learning to predict poor school performance in paediatric survivors of intensive care: a population-based cohort study
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Date
2023
Authors
Gilholm, P.
Gibbons, K.
Brüningk, S.
Klatt, J.
Vaithianathan, R.
Long, D.
Millar, J.
Tomaszewski, W.
Schlapbach, L.J.
Ganeshalingam, A.
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Journal article
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Intensive Care Medicine, 2023; 49(7):785-795
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Patricia Gilholm, Kristen Gibbons, Sarah Brüningk, Juliane Klatt, Rhema Vaithianathan, Debbie Long, Johnny Millar, Wojtek Tomaszewski, and Luregn J. Schlapbach, on behalf of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society, ANZICS, Centre for Outcomes, Resource Evaluation, CORE, and ANZICS Paediatric Study Group, ANZICS PSG
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Abstract
Purpose: Whilst survival in paediatric critical care has improved, clinicians lack tools capable of predicting long-term outcomes. We developed a machine learning model to predict poor school outcomes in children surviving intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: Population-based study of children < 16 years requiring ICU admission in Queensland, Australia, between 1997 and 2019. Failure to meet the National Minimum Standard (NMS) in the National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) assessment during primary and secondary school was the primary outcome. Routine ICU information was used to train machine learning classifiers. Models were trained, validated and tested using stratified nested cross-validation. Results: 13,957 childhood ICU survivors with 37,200 corresponding NAPLAN tests after a median follow-up duration of 6 years were included. 14.7%, 17%, 15.6% and 16.6% failed to meet NMS in school grades 3, 5, 7 and 9. The model demonstrated an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.8 (standard deviation SD, 0.01), with 51% specificity to reach 85% sensitivity [relative Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (rel-AUPRC) 3.42, SD 0.06]. Socio-economic status, illness severity, and neurological, congenital, and genetic disorders contributed most to the predictions. In children with no comorbidities admitted between 2009 and 2019, the model achieved a AUROC of 0.77 (SD 0.03) and a rel-AUPRC of 3.31 (SD 0.42). Conclusions: A machine learning model using data available at time of ICU discharge predicted failure to meet minimum educational requirements at school age. Implementation of this prediction tool could assist in prioritizing patients for follow-up and targeting of rehabilitative measures.
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© 2023 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http:// creat iveco mmons. org/ licen ses/ by- nc/4. 0/.