Predictors of unplanned hospitalisation in the older population: The role of polypharmacy and other medication and chronic disease-related factors
Date
2020
Authors
Masnoon, N.
Shakib, S.
Kalisch Ellett, L.
Caughey, G.E.
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Journal article
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Australasian Journal on Ageing, 2020; 39(3):436-446
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE:To identify demographic and medication-related predictors of unplanned hospitalisation and combine them into a hospitalisation risk score. METHODS:Patients aged ≥65 years from an outpatient multimorbidity clinic were included. Hospitalisation predictors within a year of clinic discharge were identified using logistic regression. A risk score was developed. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess its predictive ability, compared to that of the medicines count (definition of polypharmacy). RESULTS:A total of 598 patients were included (median age of 80.0 years). 58.0% (n = 347) were hospitalised within a year of clinic discharge. The AUC for the risk score incorporating age, medicines count, heart failure (HF), atherosclerotic disease and systemic steroids was 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.71], compared to 0.62 [95% CI 0.58-0.67] for the medicines count. CONCLUSION:A hospitalisation risk score incorporating demographics, medicines, namely steroids, and diseases such as HF had increased predictive ability compared to the medicines count, providing guidance for developing future polypharmacy tools.
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Copyright 2020 AJA