Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation
Date
2009
Authors
Connor, J.
Schwabe, K.
King, D.
Kaczan, D.
Kirby, M.
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Journal article
Citation
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2009; 53(3):437-456
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Abstract
<jats:p>This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.</jats:p>
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Link to a related website: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/161976/files/j.1467-8489.2009.00460.x.pdf, Open Access via Unpaywall
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Copyright 2009 The Authors