Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

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dc.contributor.authorBromham, L.
dc.contributor.authorLanfear, R.
dc.contributor.authorCassey, P.
dc.contributor.authorGibb, G.
dc.contributor.authorCardillo, M.
dc.date.issued2012
dc.description.abstractPredicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityLindell Bromham, Robert Lanfear, Phillip Cassey, Gillian Gibb and Marcel Cardillo
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2012; 279(1744):4024-4032
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2012.1437
dc.identifier.issn0962-8452
dc.identifier.issn1471-2954
dc.identifier.orcidCassey, P. [0000-0002-2626-0172]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/74257
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRoyal Soc London
dc.rights© 2012 The Royal Society
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1437
dc.subjectExtinction filter
dc.subjectextinction risk
dc.subjectmacroecology
dc.subjectcomparative method
dc.subjectNew Zealand
dc.subjectbirds
dc.titleReconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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