Asian integration models, Australia and the US
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(Published version)
Date
2010
Authors
Lundberg, D.B.
Editors
Barr, M.
Morell, E.
Morell, E.
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Conference paper
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Crises and Opportunities : Proceedings of the 18th Biennial Conference of the Asian Studies Association of Australia, 2010 / Barr, M., Morell, E. (ed./s), pp.1-17
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18th Biennial Conference of the Asian Studies Association of Australia (5 Jul 2010 - 8 Jul 2010 : Adelaide, South Australia)
Abstract
Asian integration is not only important in relation to the prospects for economic and regional security cooperation in Asia. In the 21st century there is likely to be a global power change in favour of Asia, and the manner in which that power change occurs could have major implications for global security. The „rise‟ of China is a well recognized factor in the prospective global power change. One power cycle analysis has indicated that a power change diminishing US regional power and increasing China‟s may occur in 2015-2020. (Kissane. 2005). Others dispute this pace (but not the trend), suggesting a need for more technologically contemporary indicators. (Chan, 2005)
The military primacy of the US will continue for decades, at least for the first half of the 21st century and possibly beyond. That is important because the nuclear capability of the US poses for China the certain prospect of comprehensive destruction if a major conflict were to occur between them. Therefore, US nuclear capability is likely to remain an effective deterrent of military adventurism by a „rising‟ China in that timeframe. That is important for stable global security, but the significance of military pre-eminence for ongoing power relationships should not be overstated
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Copyright 2010 The Author