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A Poisson distribution-based general model of cancer rates and a cancer risk-dependent theory of aging

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dc.contributor.authorYu, W.
dc.contributor.authorGargett, T.
dc.contributor.authorDu, Z.
dc.date.issued2023
dc.descriptionData source: Supplementary materials, https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205016
dc.description.abstractThis article presents a formula for modeling the lifetime incidence of cancer in humans. The formula utilizes a Poisson distribution-based “np” model to predict cancer incidence, with “n” representing the effective number of cell turnover and “p” representing the probability of single-cell transformation. The model accurately predicts the observed incidence of cancer in humans when a reduction in cell turnover due to aging is taken into account. The model also suggests that cancer development is ultimately inevitable. The article proposes a theory of aging based on this concept, called the “np” theory. According to this theory, an organism maintains its order by balancing cellular entropy through continuous proliferation. However, cellular “information entropy” in the form of accumulated DNA mutations increases irreversibly over time, restricting the total number of cells an organism can generate throughout its lifetime. When cell division slows down and fails to compensate for the increased entropy in the system, aging occurs. Essentially, aging is the phenomenon of running out of predetermined cell resources. Different species have evolved separate strategies to utilize their limited cell resources throughout their life cycle.
dc.identifier.citationAging, 2023; 15(17):8537-8551
dc.identifier.doi10.18632/aging.205016
dc.identifier.issn1945-4589
dc.identifier.issn1945-4589
dc.identifier.orcidGargett, T. [0000-0003-3713-1373]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11541.2/35990
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherImpact Journals LLC
dc.rightsCopyright 2023 Yu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/)
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205016
dc.subjectaging
dc.subjectcancer incidence model
dc.subjectentropy
dc.subjectpoisson distribution
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectNeoplasms
dc.subjectCell Division
dc.titleA Poisson distribution-based general model of cancer rates and a cancer risk-dependent theory of aging
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished
ror.fileinfo12276479270001831 13276479260001831 Open Access Published Version
ror.mmsid9916800031201831

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