Prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with gestational diabetes: a protocol for systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis

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dc.contributor.authorCooray, S.D.
dc.contributor.authorBoyle, J.A.
dc.contributor.authorSoldatos, G.
dc.contributor.authorWijeyaratne, L.A.
dc.contributor.authorTeede, H.J.
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractBackground: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is increasingly common and has significant implications during pregnancy and for the long-term health of the mother and offspring. However, it is a heterogeneous condition with inter-related factors including ethnicity, body mass index and gestational weight gain significantly modifying the absolute risk of complications at an individual level. Predicting the risk of pregnancy complications for an individual woman with GDM presents a useful adjunct to therapeutic decision-making and patient education. Diagnostic prediction models for GDM are prevalent. In contrast, prediction models for risk of complications in those with GDM are relatively novel. This study will systematically review published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM, describe their characteristics, compare performance and assess methodological quality and applicability. Methods: Studies will be identified by searching MEDLINE and Embase electronic databases. Title and abstract screening, full-text review and data extraction will be completed independently by two reviewers. The included studies will be systematically assessed for risk of bias and applicability using appropriate tools designed for prediction modelling studies. Extracted data will be tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparison of published prediction models. Quantitative data on predictive performance of these models will be synthesised with meta-analyses if appropriate. Discussion: This review will identify and summarise all published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM. We will compare model performance across different settings and populations with meta-analysis if appropriate. This work will guide subsequent phases in the prognosis research framework: further model development, external validation and model updating, and impact assessment. The ultimate model will estimate the absolute risk of pregnancy complications for women with GDM and will be implemented into routine care as an evidence-based GDM complication risk prediction model. It is anticipated to offer value to women and their clinicians with individualised risk assessment and may assist decision-making. Ultimately, this systematic review is an important step towards a personalised risk-stratified model-of-care for GDM to allow preventative and therapeutic interventions for the maximal benefit to women and their offspring, whilst sparing expense and harm for those at low risk.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityShamil D. Cooray, Jacqueline A. Boyle, Georgia Soldatos, Lihini A. Wijeyaratne and Helena J. Teede
dc.identifier.citationSystematic Reviews, 2019; 8(1):270-1-270-10
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s13643-019-1151-0
dc.identifier.issn2046-4053
dc.identifier.issn2046-4053
dc.identifier.orcidTeede, H.J. [0000-0001-7609-577X]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/124249
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.relation.grantNHMRC
dc.rights© The Author(s). 2019. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-019-1151-0
dc.subjectGestational diabetes, prediction model, prognosis, pregnancy complications, macrosomia, systematic review
dc.titlePrognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with gestational diabetes: a protocol for systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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