An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country

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dc.contributor.authorRosanowski, S.
dc.contributor.authorCarpenter, T.
dc.contributor.authorAdamson, D.C.
dc.contributor.authorRogers, C.
dc.contributor.authorPearce, P.
dc.contributor.authorBurns, M.
dc.contributor.authorCogger, N.
dc.contributor.editorGiangaspero, M.
dc.date.issued2019
dc.descriptionPublished: January 24, 2019
dc.description.abstractBackground: Equine influenza (EI) is an infectious respiratory disease of horses that has never been reported in New Zealand (NZ). However, the 2007 EI outbreak in Australia, previously EI free, spurred the NZ government and stakeholders into evaluating alternative EI control strategies in order to economically justify any future decision to eradicate or manage EI. To build on the policy debate, this paper presents an epinomic (epidemiologic and economic) modelling approach to evaluate alternative control strategies. An epidemiologic model to determine how alternative EI control strategies influence the distribution of EI. Model results were then input into a cost-benefit analysis framework, to identify the return and feasibility of alternative EI eradication strategies in NZ. Methods: The article explores nine alternative eradication scenarios and two baseline strategies. The alternative scenarios consisted of three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective or targeted) starting at three time points to reflect the commercial breeding-cycle. These alternatives were compared to two breeding-cycle adjusted baselines: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July). The economic loss parameters were incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants. Results and conclusions: Results suggest that the economic viability of the EI eradication programme is dependent on when within the breeding-cycle the EI outbreak occurs. If an outbreak were to occur, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would be between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Therefore, protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised, regardless of season. As multiple industry stakeholders benefit from these strategies, the study will enable policy development and to better formulate a user-pays eradication programme.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilitySarah M. Rosanowski, Tim E. Carpenter, David Adamson, Chris W. Rogers, Patricia Pearce, Martin Burns, Naomi Cogger
dc.identifier.citationPLoS One, 2019; 14(1):e0210885-1-e0210885-18
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0210885
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.orcidAdamson, D.C. [0000-0003-1616-968X]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/124422
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)
dc.rightsCopyright: © 2019 Rosanowski et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210885
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectHorses
dc.subjectOrthomyxoviridae Infections
dc.subjectHorse Diseases
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectModels, Economic
dc.subjectBreeding
dc.subjectSeasons
dc.subjectDisease Outbreaks
dc.subjectCost-Benefit Analysis
dc.subjectAustralia
dc.subjectNew Zealand
dc.titleAn economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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