Expertise and the wisdom of crowds: Whose judgments to trust and when

Files

hdl_74412.pdf (208.99 KB)
  (Published version)

Date

2012

Authors

Welsh, M.

Editors

Advisors

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Type:

Conference paper

Citation

Building bridges across cognitive sciences around the world: Proceedings of the 34th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Sapporo, Japan, August 1-4, 2012 / N. Miyake, D. Peeble, R. P. Cooper (eds.): pp.1131-1136

Statement of Responsibility

Matthew B. Welsh

Conference Name

Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (34th : 2012 : Sapporo, Japan)

Abstract

The Wisdom of Crowds describes the fact that aggregating a group’s estimate regarding unknown values is often a better strategy than selecting even an expert’s opinion. The efficacy of this strategy, however, depends on biases being nonsystematic and everyone being able to make a meaningful assessment. In situations where these conditions do not hold, expertise seems more likely to produce the best outcome. Amateurs and professional judgments are examined in a subjective domain – reviews of shows from an Arts festival – asking which group provides better information to the potential theatre-goer. In conclusion, while following the crowd produces good results, where a smaller number of reviews are available, taking expertise into account improves their usefulness and discrimination between shows.

School/Discipline

Dissertation Note

Provenance

Description

Access Status

Rights

© The authors

License

Grant ID

Published Version

Call number

Persistent link to this record