Expertise and the wisdom of crowds: Whose judgments to trust and when
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(Published version)
Date
2012
Authors
Welsh, M.
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Conference paper
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Building bridges across cognitive sciences around the world: Proceedings of the 34th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Sapporo, Japan, August 1-4, 2012 / N. Miyake, D. Peeble, R. P. Cooper (eds.): pp.1131-1136
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Matthew B. Welsh
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Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (34th : 2012 : Sapporo, Japan)
Abstract
The Wisdom of Crowds describes the fact that aggregating a group’s estimate regarding unknown values is often a better strategy than selecting even an expert’s opinion. The efficacy of this strategy, however, depends on biases being nonsystematic and everyone being able to make a meaningful assessment. In situations where these conditions do not hold, expertise seems more likely to produce the best outcome. Amateurs and professional judgments are examined in a subjective domain – reviews of shows from an Arts festival – asking which group provides better information to the potential theatre-goer. In conclusion, while following the crowd produces good results, where a smaller number of reviews are available, taking expertise into account improves their usefulness and discrimination between shows.
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© The authors