Variations in road injury crash numbers in South Australia by time of year
Date
2015
Authors
Kloeden, C.
Hutchinson, T.P.
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Report
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CN Kloeden, TP Hutchinson
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This report examines variations in road injury crash numbers in South Australia by time of year using injury and fatal crash data from 1982-2013. It was found that there was a statistically significant variation in injury crash numbers by month after accounting for different month lengths. January was found to have 11.7% fewer injury crashes per day than an average month and March was found to have 8.6% more. This pattern seems to have been in place over the entire time period examined. The period from 25 December to 5 January and public holidays were found to have very low injury crash rates and there were some indications that school holidays were associated with a lower injury crash rate. Rural areas of South Australia appeared to follow a different pattern with more injury crashes in the warmer months and fewer in the colder months. The limited available exposure measures do suggest that there is less vehicle travel in January consistent with January’s low daily injury crash rate. The increasing number of large public events in March in recent years may be having an underlying effect on the number of injury crashes in March. However, there is no consistent observable evidence for this in the crash numbers so the size of any effect is probably not large. The proportional variation in fatal crash numbers from month to month is very large. Even with 32 years of fatal crash data, no statistically significant variation by month was found.
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© The University of Adelaide 2015