Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation

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dc.contributor.authorGregory, S.
dc.contributor.authorBrook, B.
dc.contributor.authorGoossens, B.
dc.contributor.authorAncrenaz, M.
dc.contributor.authorAlfred, R.
dc.contributor.authorAmbu, L.
dc.contributor.authorFordham, D.
dc.contributor.editorGratwicke, B.
dc.date.issued2012
dc.description.abstract<h4>Background</h4>Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world's highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000-10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government's proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityStephen D. Gregory, Barry W. Brook, BenoƮt Goossens, Marc Ancrenaz, Raymond Alfred, Laurentius N. Ambu and Damien A. Fordham
dc.identifier.citationPLoS One, 2012; 7(9):1-10
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0043846
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.orcidFordham, D. [0000-0003-2137-5592]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/73789
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP1096427
dc.rightsĀ© 2012 Gregory et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043846
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectTrees
dc.subjectGases
dc.subjectRegression Analysis
dc.subjectReproducibility of Results
dc.subjectNesting Behavior
dc.subjectConservation of Natural Resources
dc.subjectEcosystem
dc.subjectGreenhouse Effect
dc.subjectClimate
dc.subjectPopulation Dynamics
dc.subjectSpecies Specificity
dc.subjectGeography
dc.subjectModels, Biological
dc.subjectBorneo
dc.subjectMalaysia
dc.subjectPongo
dc.titleLong-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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