Quantifying the predictability of renewable energy data for improving power systems decision-making
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(Published version)
Date
2023
Authors
Karimi-Arpanahi, S.
Pourmousavi, S.A.
Mahdavi, N.
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Journal article
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Patterns, 2023; 4(4):100708-1-100708-16
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Sahand Karimi-Arpanahi, S. Ali Pourmousavi, and Nariman Mahdavi
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Abstract
Decision-making in the power systems domain often relies on predictions of renewable generation. While sophisticated forecasting methods have been developed to improve the accuracy of such predictions, their accuracy is limited by the inherent predictability of the data used. However, the predictability of time series data cannot be measured by existing prediction techniques. This important measure has been overlooked by researchers and practitioners in the power systems domain. In this paper, we systematically assess the suitability of various predictability measures for renewable generation time series data, revealing the best method and providing instructions for tuning it. Using real-world examples, we then illustrate how predictability could save end users and investors millions of dollars in the electricity sector.
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Published: March 24, 2023
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© 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).