Quantifying the predictability of renewable energy data for improving power systems decision-making

Files

hdl_137836.pdf (23.29 MB)
  (Published version)

Date

2023

Authors

Karimi-Arpanahi, S.
Pourmousavi, S.A.
Mahdavi, N.

Editors

Advisors

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Type:

Journal article

Citation

Patterns, 2023; 4(4):100708-1-100708-16

Statement of Responsibility

Sahand Karimi-Arpanahi, S. Ali Pourmousavi, and Nariman Mahdavi

Conference Name

Abstract

Decision-making in the power systems domain often relies on predictions of renewable generation. While sophisticated forecasting methods have been developed to improve the accuracy of such predictions, their accuracy is limited by the inherent predictability of the data used. However, the predictability of time series data cannot be measured by existing prediction techniques. This important measure has been overlooked by researchers and practitioners in the power systems domain. In this paper, we systematically assess the suitability of various predictability measures for renewable generation time series data, revealing the best method and providing instructions for tuning it. Using real-world examples, we then illustrate how predictability could save end users and investors millions of dollars in the electricity sector.

School/Discipline

Dissertation Note

Provenance

Description

Published: March 24, 2023

Access Status

Rights

© 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

License

Grant ID

Call number

Persistent link to this record