Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

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dc.contributor.authorWells, K.
dc.contributor.authorBrook, B.
dc.contributor.authorLacy, R.
dc.contributor.authorMutze, G.
dc.contributor.authorPeacock, D.
dc.contributor.authorSinclair, R.
dc.contributor.authorSchwensow, N.
dc.contributor.authorCassey, P.
dc.contributor.authorO'Hara, R.
dc.contributor.authorFordham, D.
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractInfectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityKonstans Wells, Barry W. Brook, Robert C. Lacy, Greg J. Mutze, David E. Peacock, Ron G. Sinclair, Nina Schwensow, Phillip Cassey, Robert B. O'Hara, Damien A. Fordham
dc.identifier.citationJournal of the Royal Society Interface, 2015; 12(103):20141184-1-20141184-11
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2014.1184
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689
dc.identifier.issn1742-5662
dc.identifier.orcidPeacock, D. [0000-0003-2891-8238]
dc.identifier.orcidSinclair, R. [0000-0001-6055-9488]
dc.identifier.orcidCassey, P. [0000-0002-2626-0172]
dc.identifier.orcidFordham, D. [0000-0003-2137-5592]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/99339
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRoyal Society
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP-1202002A
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT100100200
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT0991420
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FS110200051
dc.rights© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.1184
dc.subjectbiological control; individual-based model; infectious diseases; invasive species; myxomatosis; rabbit haemorrhagic disease
dc.titleTiming and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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