Applications of conditional value-at-risk to water resources management.
Date
2009
Authors
Webby, Roger Brian
Editors
Advisors
Metcalfe, Andrew
Boland, John William
Howlett, Phil
Boland, John William
Howlett, Phil
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type:
Thesis
Citation
Statement of Responsibility
Conference Name
Abstract
In this thesis I develop mathematical models of freshwater resources and assess
the application of a risk measure, Conditional Value-at-Risk, as a criterion for
making decisions on the allocation of these resources. The nature of hydrological
systems is such that they are well represented by stochastic models. The
models considered are: time simulation; stochastic and deterministic linear
programming; and stochastic dynamic programming. The hydrological applications
are: draw down of dams; allocation and blending of water resources; operation
of a small-scale solar-powered desalination plant; and insurance against
fishery and crop shortfall. In water resource applications, optimisation models
usually have the goal of maximising expected return, or utility, but here I
demonstrate that the minimisation of the risk metric is a relevant additional
criterion to expected return for water resource management.
School/Discipline
School of Mathematical Sciences
Dissertation Note
Thesis (Ph.D) - School of Mathematical Science, 2009
Provenance
Copyright material removed from digital thesis. See print copy in University of Adelaide Library for full text.