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Trade and welfare effects of food trade policy changes: evidence from China's anti-dumping and countervailing measures on Australian barley

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dc.contributor.authorYang, J.
dc.contributor.authorAi, W.
dc.contributor.authorWang, W.
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractFood imports play an important role in ensuring overall food security. This paper provides a dynamic assessment of the trade and welfare effects of China's anti-dumping and countervailing (“double reverse”) tariffs on Australian barley. Using a difference-in-differences approach and a partial equilibrium model, we find that trade destruction effects—marked by a significant drop in Australian barley exports to China—greatly outweigh trade diversion effects, with distinct outcomes across the investigation, execution, and termination phases. Although these measures offer short-term protection for Chinese barley producers, they result in a net welfare loss for China due to reduced consumer welfare. Australia also incurs a net welfare loss from decreased producer surplus and lower domestic prices. In contrast, third countries benefit from expanded access to China's barley market and a redirection of Australian barley exports.
dc.identifier.citationChina Economic Review, 2025; 91(102405):1-17
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102405
dc.identifier.issn1043-951X
dc.identifier.issn1873-7781
dc.identifier.orcidWang, W. [0000-0001-8197-8809]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11541.2/42652
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsCopyright 2025 Elsevier
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102405
dc.subjectwelfare effects
dc.subjectanti-dumping and countervailing measures
dc.subjectfood imports
dc.titleTrade and welfare effects of food trade policy changes: evidence from China's anti-dumping and countervailing measures on Australian barley
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished
ror.mmsid9916964944101831

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