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Short‐term deterministic solar irradiance forecasting considering a heuristics‐based, operational approach

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dc.contributor.authorCastillejo‐cuberos, A.
dc.contributor.authorBoland, J.
dc.contributor.authorEscobar, R.
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractSolar energy is an economic and clean power source subject to natural variability, while energy storage might attenuate it, ultimately, effective and operationally feasible forecasting techniques for energy management are needed for better grid integration. This work presents a novel deterministic forecast method considering: irradiance pattern classification, Markov chains, fuzzy logic and an operational approach. The method developed was applied in a rolling manner for six years to a target location with no prior data to assess performance and its changes as new local data becomes available. Clearness index, diffuse fraction and irradiance hourly forecasts are analyzed on a yearly basis but also for 20 day types, and compared against smart persistence. Results show the proposed method outperforms smart persistence by ~10% for clearness index and diffuse fraction on the base case, but there are significant differences across the 20 day types analyzed, reaching up to +60% for clear days. Forecast lead time has the greatest impact in forecasting performance, which is important for any practical implementation. Seasonality in data gaps or rejected data can have a definite effect in performance assessment. A novel, comprehensive and detailed analysis framework was shown to present a better assessment of forecasters’ performance
dc.identifier.citationEnergies, 2021; 14(18)
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/en14186005
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073
dc.identifier.orcidBoland, J. [0000-0003-0362-4655] [0000-0003-1132-7589]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11541.2/25537
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsCopyright 2021 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/en14186005
dc.subjectsolar power forecasting
dc.subjectrenewable energy
dc.subjectsolar energy
dc.subjectMarkov chains
dc.titleShort‐term deterministic solar irradiance forecasting considering a heuristics‐based, operational approach
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished
ror.fileinfo12233286410001831 13233286400001831 energies-14-06005-v3
ror.mmsid9916563077301831

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