Scenario network mapping: the development of a methodology for social inquiry /
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(Published version)
Date
2005
Authors
List, Dennis.
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thesis
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Abstract
This thesis records the development of Scenario Network Mapping (or SNM): an integrated process for anticipating the future, derived from scenario planning. It argues that this process amounts to an innovative and comprehensive method of anticipating the future. Compared with traditional scenario planning, it is designed to be carried out on a smaller scale, and can be more readily updated. Since the literature revealed no appropriate process for developing a social inquiry methodology, the thesis also develops such a process, using action research for formative evaluation.
If foresighting methods are regarded as ways of dealing with social change, changing social environments therefore require new forms of anticipation. Following a review of foresighting methodologies and of 15 scenarios for the year 2000, it is argued that the current world social environment requires a method that fulfils different criteria from futures methods used previously. The literatures of foresighting and related social inquiry were used to develop a set of evaluation criteria for a futures method. These criteria were divided into design criteria (against which a methodological design could be evaluated) and execution criteria (evaluable during and following empirical iteration).
School/Discipline
University of South Australia.
Dissertation Note
Thesis (PhDBusinessandManagement)--University of South Australia, 2005.
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