Development of non-homogeneous and hierarchical hidden markov models for modelling monthly rainfall and streamflow time series
Date
2004
Authors
Whiting, J.
Lambert, M.
Metcalfe, A.
Kuczera, G.
Editors
Advisors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type:
Conference paper
Citation
Critical transitions in water and environmental resources management [electronic resource] : proceedings of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress : June 27-July 1, 2004, Salt Lake City, UT / sponsored by Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers ; Gerald Sehlke, Donald F. Hayes, and David K. Stevens (eds.): pp. 1-10
Statement of Responsibility
Julian Whiting, Martin Lambert, Andrew Metcalfe, and George Kuczera
Conference Name
World Water and Environmental Resources Congress (2004 : Salt Lake City, Utah)
Abstract
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a plausible representation of long-term hydroclimatic persistence in rainfall and streamflow observations. Persistent climate processes influence hydrological observations at various time scales. This paper develops the stochastic framework of two-state HMMs to better represent climate-rainfall interactions at both monthly and annual levels. Two new models, a hierarchical HMM and a non-homogeneous HMM are introduced, and fitted to monthly rainfall and streamflow observations from Australia. The value of these models to identify two-state persistence is compared to that of existing two-state HMMs.