An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

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dc.contributor.authorNarayan, Paresh Kumaren
dc.contributor.authorPeng, Xiujianen
dc.contributor.schoolSchool of Social Sciences: Gender, Work and Social Inquiryen
dc.contributor.schoolCentre for Labour Researchen
dc.date.issued2006en
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.en
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityParesh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Pengen
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies, 2006; 4(2):165-183en
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/14765280600737039en
dc.identifier.issn1476-5284en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/36144
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherRoutledgeen
dc.rights© Routledgeen
dc.subjectChina; fertility transition; cointegration; family planning policy; social economic developmenten
dc.titleAn econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000en
dc.typeJournal articleen

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