Number preference, precision and implicity confidence

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dc.contributor.authorWelsh, M.
dc.contributor.authorNavarro, D.
dc.contributor.authorBegg, S.
dc.contributor.conferenceAnnual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (33rd : 2011 : Boston, USA)
dc.date.issued2011
dc.description.abstractIn elicitation tasks, people are asked to make estimates under conditions of uncertainty but elicitors then interpret these estimates as if the estimator were certain of them. An analysis of people’s patterns of responding during the elicitation of uncertainty, indicates that there are markers of confidence incorporated into these estimates that can be used to predict the person’s true level of confidence. One such marker is the precision (number of significant figures) of the estimate. Analyses of elicited data show the expected positive relationships between accuracy, precision and explicit confidence and, further, that precision offers information beyond that of explicit confidence ratings. We then demonstrate the importance of incorporating this information on an overconfidence task, showing that it can account for a 9% difference in calibration.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityMatthew B. Welsh, Daniel J. Navarro and Steve H. Begg
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2011), held in Boston, USA 20-32 July 2011 / L. Carlson, C. Hoelscher and T. Shipley (eds.): pp.1521-1526
dc.identifier.isbn9780976831877
dc.identifier.orcidWelsh, M. [0000-0002-3605-716X]
dc.identifier.orcidNavarro, D. [0000-0001-7648-6578]
dc.identifier.orcidBegg, S. [0000-0003-3329-9064]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/69972
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCognitive Science Society
dc.publisher.placeonline
dc.rights© the authors
dc.subjectNumber preference
dc.subjectconfidence
dc.subjectprecision
dc.subjectelicitation
dc.subjectjudgment and decision making
dc.titleNumber preference, precision and implicity confidence
dc.typeConference paper
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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