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Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

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dc.contributor.authorRashid, M.M.
dc.contributor.authorBeecham, S.
dc.contributor.authorChowdhury, R.K.
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractIn this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041–2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041–2060) compared to the base period (1961–2000).
dc.identifier.citationTheoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017; 130(1-2):453-466
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
dc.identifier.issn0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11541.2/123853
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsCopyright 2016 Springer Access Condition Notes: Accepted manuscript available on open access
dc.source.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
dc.subjectGeneralized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM)
dc.subjectextreme rainfal
dc.subjectfuture rainfall projection
dc.titleSimulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished
ror.fileinfo12239437360001831 13239437350001831 Open Access Postprint
ror.mmsid9916109500801831

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