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Item Metadata only The 1998 Australian Waterfront Dispute in its Historical Context(1999) Sheridan, T.Item Metadata only A bounds analysis of world food futures: global agriculture through to 2050(Wiley, 2014) Pardey, P.; Beddow, J.; Hurley, T.; Beatty, T.; Eidman, V.The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (high-consumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forest-dominated lands.Item Metadata only A case for bundling public goods contributions(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc, 2007) Ghosh, S.; Karaivanov, A.; Oak, M.We extend the model of voluntary contributions to multiple public goods by allowing for bundling of the public goods. Specifically, we study the case where agents contribute into a common pool which is then allocated toward the financing of two pure public goods. We explore the welfare implications of allowing for such bundling vis-`a-vis a separate contributions scheme. We show that for high income inequality or for identical preferences among agents bundling leads to higher joint welfare. Interestingly, a welfare improvement can in some cases occur despite a decrease in total contributions. On the contrary, when agents are heterogenous, for low income inequality bundling can lead to lower total contributions and may decrease welfare compared to a separate contribution scheme. Our findings have implications for the design of charitable institutions and international aid agencies.Item Metadata only A comparison of CEO pay-performance sensitivity in privately-held and public firms(Elsevier, 2015) Gao, H.; Li, K.Abstract not availableItem Metadata only A contest with the taxman - the impact of tax rates on tax evasion and wastefully invested resources(Elsevier Science BV, 2006) Bayer, R.We develop a moral hazard model with auditing where both the principal and the agent can influence the probability that the true state of nature is verified. This setting is widely applicable for situations where fraudulent reporting with costly state verification takes place. However, we use the framework to investigate tax evasion. We model tax evasion as a concealment-detection contest between the taxpayer and the authority. We show that higher tax rates cause more evasion and increase the resources wasted in the contest. Additionally, we find conditions under which a government should enforce incentive compatible auditing in order to reduce wasted resources.Item Metadata only A dynamic model of entrepreneurial uncertainty and business opportunity identification: Exploration as a mediator and entrepreneurial self-efficacy as a moderator(SAGE Publications, 2018) Schmitt, A.; Rosing, K.; Zhang, S.X.; Leatherbee, M.This study focuses on the identification of business opportunities when entrepreneurs’ perceived level of environmental uncertainty changes. We suggest that within persons, exploration mediates this relationship and entrepreneurial self-efficacy moderates whether entrepreneurs explore more or less with increasing uncertainty. To test our moderated mediation model we conducted a monthly field study with 121 early-stage entrepreneurs. Multilevel regression analyses reveal that an increase in the level of perceived uncertainty within entrepreneurs predicted the identification of opportunities through exploration for entrepreneurs high in self-efficacy, but not for those low in self-efficacy. Entrepreneurial self-efficacy acts as a personal resource that helps entrepreneurs to transform increasing perceptions of uncertainty into exploration and opportunity identification.Item Metadata only A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression(Oxford Univ Press, 2006) Weder, M.The paper finds empirical evidence on the ripple effect of sunspots on the interwar German economy. It identifies a sequence of negative shocks to expectations for the 1927–32 period. The artificial economy predicts the 1928–32 depression and a long boom from 1933 onwards. Overall, a tangible fraction of interwar output volatility is attributed to sunspots.Item Metadata only A man's blessing or a woman's curse? The family earnings gap of doctors(Wiley, 2016) Schurer, S.; Kuehnle, D.; Scott, A.; Cheng, T.We examine the size and determinants of the family earnings gap for Australian general practitioners (GPs). Female GPs with children earn more than $30,000 less than comparable female GPs without children, while male GPs with children earn more than $45,000 more than comparable male GPs without children. The main determinants of the family gap are differences in observable characteristics such as working hours, labor-force attachment, and demographics, and additionally, for men, entrepreneurship and practice size. A fixed-effects extension of the analysis confirms both the carer effect of children on female GPs and the breadwinner effect of children on male GPs.Item Metadata only A minimalist model of federal grants and flypaper effects(Elsevier, 1996) Brennan, G.; Pincus, J.This paper shows that ‘flypaper effects’ can be observed for unconditional federal grants, even in the absence of agenda-setters, voting intransitivities, informational asymmetries, etc. In a simple representation of a regime of federal, general revenue grants, median citizen-voters are decisive over the levels of grants, taxation and spending. By assumption, federal grants received equal federal taxes paid in each recipient locallity. The size of the federal grant varies endogenously with demand conditions and the efficiency of tax technologies. The apparent flypaper effects, positive or negative, vary with the source of the change in grants.Item Open Access A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics?(Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2022) Bandyopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, A.K.; Oak, M.; Liu, Q.We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of conflict. Leaders differ in ability and ideology such that the higher the leader’s ability, the lower the cost of conflict, and the more hawkish the leader, the higher his utility from retaining land. We show that the conflict arises from the political process with re-election motives causing leaders to choose to cede too little land to signal their ability. We also show that when the rents of office are high, the political equilibrium and the second best diverge; in particular, the policy under the political equilibrium is more hawkish compared to the second best. When both ideology and ability are unknown, we provide a plausible condition under which the probability of re-election increases in the leader’s hawkishness, thereby providing an explanation for why hawkish politicians may have a natural advantage under the electoral process.Item Metadata only A model of informal favor exchange on networks(Wiley Online Library, 2018) Masson, V.; Choi, S.; Moore, A.; Oak, M.We develop a model of informal favor exchange within a social network where the cost of providing a favor is stochastic. The community has a norm, which specifies a cost threshold under which one should perform a favor if asked, as well as a punishment—exclusion from the network of the “noncompliers,” that is, of those who do not perform favors despite their cost being below the threshold, and those who refuse to punish nonperformers. We show that there always exists a cost threshold such that all agents participating in the favor exchange system receive strictly positive expected utility, and the system is a stable system. For systems involving stars and regular networks, we provide an ordering of the highest cost threshold supporting their stability. We also identify the conditions under which systems are efficient and show that, among all efficient systems, the one with the complete network provides the highest sum of expected utilities. An efficient system, however, need not be stable.Item Metadata only A model of the world's wine markets(Elsevier Science BV, 2003) Wittwer, G.; Berger-Thomson, N.; Anderson, K.This paper describes the theoretical and empirical structure of the World Multisectoral Wine Model, which uses some of the features of general equilibrium models. The model is disaggregated into the expanding premium and shrinking non-premium segments of the wine market. To illustrate its usefulness, we model the impact on the global market of the projected rapid premium supply expansion in New World wine production to 2005. The results show supply-induced falls in producer prices of New World producers are dampened or even reversed in the projection period by a growing consumer preference globally for premium wine. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved.Item Metadata only A nonparametric test for the change of the density function under association(Gordon Breach Sci Publ Ltd, 2007) Li, D.; Lin, Z.In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a change of the marginal density of a strictly stationary sequence Xn, n≥1, which is either associated or negatively associated. The test statistic is constructed based on the sequential kernel estimate of the density function. We first establish a functional central limit theorem for the kernel density estimator under appropriate conditions. Then, we show that the limiting distribution of the test statistic is a functional of independent Brownian bridges.Item Metadata only A note on conspicuous leisure, animal spirits and endogenous cycles(Springer, 2004) Weder, M.This paper investigates general equilibrium effects of conspicuous leisure. It finds that leisure externalities reduce the degree of other market imperfections needed to generate indeterminacy or sunspot equilibria - endogneous cycles become empirically more plausible. Sunspot equilibria are possible with a downward-sloping labor demand schedule. The economic reasoning behind the result is that with conspicuous-externalities, labor is drawn more easily in and out of leisure to help fulfill agents expectations.Item Open Access A note on the exact solution of asset pricing models with habit persistence(Cambridge Univ Press, 2006) Collard, F.; Feve, P.; Ghattassi, I.This paper provides a closed-form solution to a standard asset pricing model with habit formation when the growth rate of endowment follows a first-order Gaussian autoregressive process. We determine conditions that guarantee the existence of a stationary bounded equilibrium. The findings are useful because they allow to evaluate the accuracy of various approximation methods to nonlinear rational expectation models. Furthermore, they can be used to perform simulation experiments to study the finite sample properties of various estimation methods.Item Metadata only A spatial-temporal vulnerability assessment to support the building of community resilience against power outage impacts(Elsevier, 2017) Münzberg, T.; Wiens, M.; Schultmann, F.Power outages are among the most serious Critical Infrastructure (CI) disruptions and require effective disaster management with collaboration of affected CI providers and disaster management authorities. To support building community resilience, we introduce a vulnerability assessment which allows an enhanced spatial-temporal understanding of initial power outage impacts. Using the assessment enables planers to better identify which and when CIs become vulnerable and how important they are in comparison to other CIs before the overall crisis situation escalates and unmanageable cascading effects occur. The assessment addresses the initial phase of a power outage and corresponding early measures of local risk and crisis management organizations according to the German disaster management system. The assessment is an indicator-based approach which is extended to consider time-depending effects through time-referenced demand and the depletion of Coping Capacity Resources (CCR). The estimation of the relevance of CIs regarding the provision of vital services and products is addressed by a modified Delphi method. In addition, an expert survey was conducted to shed light on the evaluation of coping resources. In this paper, we describe the components of the assessment and propose different aggregation approaches which each enhances the understanding of spatial-temporal impacts of a power outage, and, hence, increases the forecasting capability for disaster management authorities. For demonstration purposes, the assessment is implemented for the case of the city of Mannheim, Germany.Item Open Access A Survey of Papers Using Indonesian Firm-Level Data: Research Questions and Insights for Novel Policy-Relevant Research in Economics(Informa UK Limited, 2022) Marquez-Ramos, L.I review the literature in international trade that uses Indonesian firm-level data, particularly the Annual Manufacturing Survey compiled by the Industrial Statistics division of Statistics Indonesia. I identify the issues addressed and the scope for new policy-relevant research questions. From a data-availability approach, I provide insights into general data concerns and constraints faced by researchers. From a policy-relevance approach, I find that a limited number of topics are analysed in the studies that use the data and are published in international refereed journals. I identify some overall trends, and then discuss new topics and methods for a continuing policy-relevant research agenda.Item Metadata only A test for model specification of diffusion processes(Inst Mathematical Statistics, 2008) Chen, S.; Gao, J.; Cheng, Y.We propose a test for model specification of a parametric diffusion process based on a kernel estimation of the transitional density of the process. The empirical likelihood is used to formulate a statistic, for each kernel smoothing bandwidth, which is effectively a Studentized L2-distance between the kernel transitional density estimator and the parametric transitional density implied by the parametric process. To reduce the sensitivity of the test on smoothing bandwidth choice, the final test statistic is constructed by combining the empirical likelihood statistics over a set of smoothing bandwidths. To better capture the finite sample distribution of the test statistic and data dependence, the critical value of the test is obtained by a parametric bootstrap procedure. Properties of the test are evaluated asymptotically and numerically by simulation and by a real data example.Item Metadata only Academic migration: the case of new australian universities(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2005) Potts, A.Currently a number of countries around the world grapple with the alleged issues of “brain drain” and “brain gain”. These twin areas are especially felt in smaller nations such as Australia. They are particularly the subject of analysis with respect to the academic profession, which seeks to recruit the next generation of academics in an increasingly global and competitive world. Academic migration itself is not a new issue being as old as the profession itself. What perhaps is novel is that in a mass system of higher education with a great diversity of institutional types migration and migration decisions are even less one-dimensional than perhaps they once, if ever, were. If ever academic migrants were motivated only by academic decisions in making their migration choices does this also apply to those who work in newer and less traditional universities. This study using life history methods examines academic migrants and their migration choices with reference to two new Australian universities. The data is related to the wider literature on recent migration studies and academic migration. Questions are posed and conclusions drawn for academic recruitment by universities facing the challenges posed by imminent large-scale retirement of academic staffItem Metadata only Accession of Turkey to the European Union: Market Access and Regulatory Issues(The World Bank, 2005) Francois, J.; Hoekman, B.; Togan, S.