A test of the Bass model for forecasting adoption in a professional services market
Date
2003
Authors
Corkindale, David
List, Dennis H.
Editors
Advisors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type:
Conference paper
Citation
Australia and New Zealand Marketing Academy conference proceedings, 1-3 December, 2003: pp.2492-2496
Statement of Responsibility
Conference Name
Australia and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference (2003 : Adelaide, S.A.)
Abstract
Data was collected from market research offices in Australia in mid-1999 on their adoption of
using the Internet to collect primary data. Based upon this, the Bass model was used to
forecast the growth in further adoption, up to mid-2002, of their use of email and web-based
surveys. These forecasts were presented to the market research industry at this time. In mid-
2002 data was again collected from market research offices to establish the levels of adoption
of these two methods. From this the forecasting accuracy of the model could be ascertained. It
was found that if the growth in the number of market research offices over the period was
allowed for, the accuracy was within 1.6% for web-based survey adoption and 8.6% for email
surveys. The most commonly cited uses of the Bass model are for the adoption of durable
goods; this study adds an application in the professional services domain. The fieldwork in
1999 also established the nature of the influence on adoption - published sources or other
users and obtained measures of these. The relationship of these measures and the values of p,
the coefficient of innovation and q, the coefficient of imitation, is commented upon and
further research proposed.