52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms

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dc.contributor.authorFordham, D.A.
dc.contributor.authorBrown, S.C.
dc.contributor.authorCanteri, E.
dc.contributor.authorAustin, J.J.
dc.contributor.authorLomolino, M.V.
dc.contributor.authorHaythorne, S.
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, E.
dc.contributor.authorBocherens, H.
dc.contributor.authorManica, A.
dc.contributor.authorRey-Iglesia, A.
dc.contributor.authorRahbek, C.
dc.contributor.authorNogués-Bravo, D.
dc.contributor.authorLorenzen, E.D.
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThe extinction of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) at the onset of the Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses of late Quaternary megafauna to climatic and anthropogenic causal drivers with available genetic and paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms of ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding of fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using an abundant fossil record, ancient DNA, and high-resolution simulation models, we untangle the ecological mechanisms and causal drivers that are likely to have been integral in the decline and later extinction of the woolly rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction of distribution-wide metapopulation dynamics supports a pathway to extinction that began long before the Holocene, when the combination of cooling temperatures and low but sustained hunting by humans trapped woolly rhinoceroses in suboptimal habitats along the southern edge of their range. Modeling indicates that this ecological trap intensified after the end of the last ice age, preventing colonization of newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing metapopulation processes, triggering the extinction of the woolly rhinoceros in the early Holocene. Our findings suggest that fragmentation and resultant metapopulation dynamics should be explicitly considered in explanations of late Quaternary megafauna extinctions, sending a clarion call to the fragility of the remaining large-bodied grazers restricted to disjunct fragments of poor-quality habitat due to anthropogenic environmental change.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityDamien A. Fordhama, Stuart C. Brown, Elisabetta Canteri, Jeremy J. Austin, Mark V. Lomolino, Sean Haythorne, Edward Armstrong, Hervé Bocherensh, Andrea Manica, Alba Rey-Iglesia, Carsten Rahbek, David Nogués-Bravo, and Eline D. Lorenzen
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024; 121(24):e2316419121-e2316419121
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.2316419121
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.orcidFordham, D.A. [0000-0003-2137-5592]
dc.identifier.orcidBrown, S.C. [0000-0002-0669-1418]
dc.identifier.orcidCanteri, E. [0000-0001-9867-8247]
dc.identifier.orcidAustin, J.J. [0000-0003-4244-2942]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2440/141480
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP180102392
dc.rights© 2024 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
dc.source.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2316419121
dc.subjectmegafauna; metapopulation dynamics; ecological mechanisms; synergistic interactions; reconstructing extinctions
dc.subject.meshAnimals
dc.subject.meshPerissodactyla
dc.subject.meshEcosystem
dc.subject.meshPopulation Dynamics
dc.subject.meshPaleontology
dc.subject.meshFossils
dc.subject.meshExtinction, Biological
dc.subject.meshDNA, Ancient
dc.title52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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