Heat-attributable hospitalisation costs in Sydney: Current estimations and future projections in the context of climate change

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dc.contributor.authorTong, X.
dc.contributor.authorWondmagegn, B.Y.
dc.contributor.authorXiang, J.
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, S.
dc.contributor.authorHansen, A.
dc.contributor.authorDear, K.
dc.contributor.authorPisaniello, D.
dc.contributor.authorVarghese, B.M.
dc.contributor.authorXiao, J.
dc.contributor.authorJian, L.
dc.contributor.authorScalley, B.
dc.contributor.authorNitschke, M.
dc.contributor.authorNairn, J.
dc.contributor.authorBambrick, H.
dc.contributor.authorKarnon, J.
dc.contributor.authorBi, P.
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThe association between heat and diseases has been extensively reported. However, its associated healthcare costs and attributable fraction due to heat were scarcely explored. The aim of this study was to estimate hospitalisation costs attributable to heat in Sydney, and to project future costs under climate change scenarios. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model, this study estimated heat-attributable hospitalisation costs in Sydney; and using 2010–2016 data as baseline, future costs for 2030s and 2050s were estimated under three climate change scenarios depending on greenhouse gas emissions - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Higher temperatures were found to be associated with increased hospitalisation costs. About 8–9% of the total hospitalisation costs were attributable to heat. The total costs attributable to heat over the baseline period 2010–2016 were estimated to be AU$252 million, with mental health hospitalisation making the largest contribution. Hospitalisation costs are estimated to increase substantially to AU$387–399 million in the 2030s, and AU$506–570 million by mid-century under different climate change scenarios. Urgent action is required to reduce heat-attributable illness in our communities, particularly for mental health conditions. Relevant preparations including healthcare workforce capacity building and resource allocation are needed to deal with these challenges in the context of climate change.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityMichael Tong, Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn, Jianjun Xiang, Susan Williams, Alana Hansen, Keith Dear, Dino Pisaniello, Blesson Mathew Varghese, Jianguo Xiao, Le Jian, Ben Scalley, Monika Nitschke, John Nairn, Hilary Bambrick, Jonathan Karnon, Peng Bi
dc.identifier.citationUrban Climate, 2021; 40:101028-1-101028-9
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101028
dc.identifier.issn2212-0955
dc.identifier.orcidTong, X. [0000-0002-9694-9207]
dc.identifier.orcidWondmagegn, B.Y. [0000-0003-4635-0754]
dc.identifier.orcidXiang, J. [0000-0002-6862-2696]
dc.identifier.orcidWilliams, S. [0000-0001-7721-4152]
dc.identifier.orcidHansen, A. [0000-0003-0195-3770]
dc.identifier.orcidDear, K. [0000-0002-0788-7404]
dc.identifier.orcidPisaniello, D. [0000-0002-4156-0608]
dc.identifier.orcidVarghese, B.M. [0000-0003-2974-7282]
dc.identifier.orcidNitschke, M. [0000-0002-8524-7867]
dc.identifier.orcidNairn, J. [0000-0001-6833-5964]
dc.identifier.orcidKarnon, J. [0000-0003-3220-2099]
dc.identifier.orcidBi, P. [0000-0002-3238-3427]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2440/133887
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1145239
dc.rights© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101028
dc.subjectHospitalisation cost; Heat; Heat-attributable disease; Climate change; Sydney
dc.titleHeat-attributable hospitalisation costs in Sydney: Current estimations and future projections in the context of climate change
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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