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When Chinese Mania Meets Global Frenzy: Commodity Price Bubbles

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dc.contributor.authorFan, J.H.
dc.contributor.authorFernandez-Perez, A.
dc.contributor.authorIndriawan, I.
dc.contributor.authorTodorova, N.
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines price bubbles in global commodity markets. We find that positive bubbles are more driven by fundamental shocks, while negative bubbles are more influenced by pessimistic market views on prices and the economy. Furthermore, bubble determinants vary across geographic regions. Trader behavior and policy uncertainty play prominent roles in influencing price bubbles in China, while global bubbles are predominantly shaped by rational responses to inventory, growth, and inflation. Finally, only positive bubbles exhibit contagion across regions. Overall, our findings suggest that asset price bubbles arise from traders’ behavioral responses to a combination of fundamental, macroeconomic, and idiosyncratic shocks.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityJohn Hua Fan, Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Ivan Indriawan, Neda Todorova
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Commodity Markets, 2024; 36:100437-1-100437-24
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100437
dc.identifier.issn2405-8505
dc.identifier.issn2405-8505
dc.identifier.orcidIndriawan, I. [0000-0002-6558-5551]
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2440/142724
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.source.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100437
dc.subjectBubbles; Contagion; Commodity; Futures market; China
dc.titleWhen Chinese Mania Meets Global Frenzy: Commodity Price Bubbles
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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