Decision making and confidence given uncertain advice

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorPile, K.
dc.contributor.authorDry, M.
dc.date.issued2006
dc.description.abstractWe study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend solely on the accuracy of the advice. Rather, confidence seems to be influenced by both the frequency and accuracy of the advice. Second, people are less confident in their guessed decisions when they have to make relatively more of them. Theoretically, we develop and evaluate a type of sequential sampling process model—known as a self-regulating accumulator—that accounts for both decision making and confidence. The model captures the regularities in people's behavior with interpretable parameter values, and we show its ability to fit the data is not due to excessive model complexity. Using the model, we draw conclusions about some properties of human reasoning under uncertainty.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityMichael D. Lee and Matthew J. Dry
dc.identifier.citationCognitive Science, 2006; 30(6):1081-1095
dc.identifier.doi10.1207/s15516709cog0000_71
dc.identifier.issn0364-0213
dc.identifier.issn1551-6709
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/35577
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Science Inc
dc.rights© 2006 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog0000_71
dc.subjectDecision making
dc.subjectUncertainty
dc.subjectConfidence
dc.subjectAccumulator model
dc.subjectSequential sampling process
dc.titleDecision making and confidence given uncertain advice
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

Files

Collections

Psychology publications