Prevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004-2009

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dc.contributor.authorLiu, X.
dc.contributor.authorJiang, B.
dc.contributor.authorBi, P.
dc.contributor.authorYang, W.
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Q.
dc.date.issued2012
dc.description.abstractThe monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004–2009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30–50 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0·0133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes.
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityX. Liu, B. Jiang, P. Bi, W. Yang and Q. Liu
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology and Infection, 2012; 140(5):851-857
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0950268811001063
dc.identifier.issn0950-2688
dc.identifier.issn1469-4409
dc.identifier.orcidBi, P. [0000-0002-3238-3427]
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/73287
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCambridge Univ Press
dc.rightsCopyright status unknown
dc.source.urihttps://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268811001063
dc.subjectEpidemics
dc.subjectgeographical information systems
dc.subjectinfectious disease epidemiology
dc.subjecthaemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
dc.titlePrevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004-2009
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.publication-statusPublished

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